A One-dimensional Ensemble Forecast and Assimilation System for Fog Prediction     

M. D. Müller  C. Schmutz  E. Parlow 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2007,164(6-7):1241-1264

A probabilistic fog forecast system was designed based on two high resolution numerical 1-D models called COBEL and PAFOG. The 1-D models are coupled to several 3-D numerical weather prediction models and thus are able to consider the effects of advection. To deal with the large uncertainty inherent to fog forecasts, a whole ensemble of 1-D runs is computed using the two different numerical models and a set of different initial conditions in combination with distinct boundary conditions. Initial conditions are obtained from variational data assimilation, which optimally combines observations with a first guess taken from operational 3-D models. The design of the ensemble scheme computes members that should fairly well represent the uncertainty of the current meteorological regime. Verification for an entire fog season reveals the importance of advection in complex terrain. The skill of 1-D fog forecasts is significantly improved if advection is considered. Thus the probabilistic forecast system has the potential to support the forecaster and therefore to provide more accurate fog forecasts.  相似文献   

相位激电法(偶极-偶极)单频电磁耦合校正方法   总被引：2，自引：2，他引：2  

王书民  雷达 《物探与化探》2002,26(1):57-59,63

主要介绍一种相位激电法(偶极—偶极,以下简称偶极)电磁耦合校正方法,其原理是将视电阻率近似视为均匀大地电阻率,利用均匀大地条件下偶极装置电磁感应响应的正演计算方法,算出电磁感应响应,再将其从观测的总响应中去除,从而达到电磁耦合校正的目的。  相似文献   

造山带与沉积盆地的耦合——以青藏高原周边造山带与盆地为例     

刘德民  李德威 《西北地质》2002,35(1):15-21

通过系统分析青藏高原周边造山带与沉积盆地的结构样式、变形特征及形成演化，认为该区中、新生代造山带与盆地之间存在极其明显的耦合关系，主要表现在：(盆)伸展扩张—(山)收缩隆升；(盆)挤压俯冲—(山)挤压仰冲；(盆)负荷沉降—(山)卸荷隆升；(盆)挤压挠曲、顺层滑脱—(山)侧向扩展、逆冲推覆。盆山耦合作用造成造山带具有厚皮构造的厚壳薄幔，盆地具有薄皮构造的薄壳厚幔的岩石圈结构。  相似文献   

水资源可持续利用的生态经济评价   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

黄奕龙  汤洁 《吉林地质》2001,20(4):62-66

本文从一个独特的角度，将水资源生态系统和社会经济系统耦合成水资源生态经济系统，把水资源的开发利用纳入生态经济系统的运行体系之中，利用生态经济学中的生态经济协调发展理论和可持续发展的思想，建立水资源可持续利用的生态经济评价体系。在此基础上，对辽河三角洲地区水资源的可持续进行了评价，其结果表明：辽河三角洲地区水资源开发利用的可持续性从1986年到1995年间逐渐减弱，目前处于极弱可持续利用阶段。  相似文献   

海气耦合气侯模式的依时解          下载免费PDF全文

封国林  曹鸿兴 《应用气象学报》1996,7(2)

运用量子力学方法，精确地求出了海气耦合随机－动力模式的依时解．对依时解的分析表明：当气候系统处于基态时，系统的行为呈布朗运动形式，由此从理论上证明了Ｈａｓｓｅｌｍａｎｎ关于随机气候模式建立的立足点．当系统处于第一激发态时，系统运动呈随时间衰减的形式；在一定条件下则为周期振荡，主周期长度为２．３年．最后将结果用来讨论二氧化碳浓度倍增时的气候影响．  相似文献   

A COUPLING THREE DIMENSIONAL BAROCLINIC MODEL OF BIWA LAKE AIR-WATER SYSTEM     

《地理学报(英文版)》1996,(3)

I.IntroductionTherearealotofstudiesdealingwithhydrodwiaAncsoflakes,numericalsimulationoflakecurrentsystemst5,7,lO,l31,andwiti1windsystemsoverlakesandnumericalsimulationontheland-lake/seaormountain-valleybreeze[4,6,8].Usually,ti1emodelsinti1eatmosphericboundarylayerandinlakewaterweresimulatedseParately.InfaCt,theprocessesintheatmosphericboundarylayeroverlakesandti1eprocessesinthelakewaterareinteraCtedstronglyeachoti1er.Collecteddatashow,thatalmoStalllargelakes,marginalseas,estuariesandlagoon…  相似文献   

B-polarization induction in two thin half-sheets coupled to the mantle by a conducting crust—II. Solution by the mode-matching method, the fields above the conductors, and example results     

T. W. Dawson 《Geophysical Journal International》1996,124(2):577-590

The mode-matching method is used to obtain an exact analytical solution to the problem of B -polarization induction in two adjacent thin half-sheets, lying on a conducting layer that is terminated by a perfect conductor at finite depth. These components of the model represent, respectively, the Earth's conducting surface layers, crust, and mantle. In dimensionless variables, the model has three independent parameters, these being the two thin-sheet conductances and the layer thickness. The mode-matching solution obtained in this paper is shown to be identical lo that derived via the Wiener-Hopf method in a companion paper (Dawson 1996), and so provides additional verification of that solution. As was shown in the companion paper, the solution for the present model contains, as special limiting cases, those for three models considered earlier by various authors. The second part of the present paper addresses the solutions for the electric fields in the non-conducting half-space above the conductors, which represents the atmosphere. In the final part, sample numerical calculations are presented to illustrate the solution.  相似文献   

Influence of viscoelastic coupling on the axial rotation of the Earth and its fluid core     

M. Lefftz  H. Legros 《Geophysical Journal International》1992,108(3):725-739

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The dynamics of thin shells with variable viscosity and the origin of toroidal flow in the mantle   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

Neil M. Ribe 《Geophysical Journal International》1992,110(3):537-552

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Propagation of surface waves on a laterally heterogeneous earth: asymptotic solution of the two-dimensional wave equation     

Fred F. Pollitz 《Geophysical Journal International》1992,111(1):67-78

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